The next 20 years as at mid 2021
So a decade and change ago I read a book called “The next 100 years” by George Friedman. Looking back ten years at what was proposed about the supposed “Paper Tiger”, we now have evidence that they are using bioterrorism, trade wars, and while not currently at war, it may arrive soon. The latest reports are showing a stronger postulation from the paper tiger against Taiwan, wanting to invade what the world should consider an independent state. So will any of the other forecasts realise? How will the paper tigers current acts impact the future?
The world has changed dramatically since the chaianese wuhan flu was unleashed, especially with the many vaccines. In the early months of 2020, I recall mentioning that the biggest risk to the world was the resurgence of terrorism, but using another virus. The risk of terrorism is rising, the taliban have retaken Afghanistan in weeks, chaiana has extended the belt and road to Pakistan, it is inevitable that the paper tiger will continue with debt traps, this time for Afghanistan, especially since Afghanistan has over a trillion dollars in rare earth metals. It is highly probable that this new millenium’s first bio-terrorist may spark a new age of fear and destruction. This shouldn’t come as news, as some scientists in China tried to get the news to the world beforehand.
First, the paper tiger is trying to impose itself on the world because it fears another century of humiliation. It is evident that they have a massive chip on its shoulder and is preparing for a pre-emptive strike on the west. The taliban demonstrated that fighting from the mountains, even the greatest military in the modern world can be beaten. The paper tiger is most assuredly planning to defeat their only military rival by planting missiles in the high mountains of Pakistan and Afghanistan. Then they (the paper tiger) will continue to postulate against India and attempt to take the mountains for the same purpose. The taliban now control Afghanistan, with only a few short months of fighting the supposedly “trained” Afghan military. If the ccp’s alliances aren’t enough, then their economic gesticulations should be sufficient to alarm us. With the ccp in in Afghanistan, it is highly likely that a new bio-terrorist wave will occur, no matter how cautious the ccp are.
Secondly, if we thought that the ccp weren’t instrumental in the chaianese wuhan flu, then why where they planning to release a virus into bats? It is at the very least, highly questionable that having intentions to do something, then a deadly virus creates a pandemic across the globe shortly after, aren’t correlated. We’ve had decades to consider and prepare for the eventual wave of bio-terrorism; however, as time progresses, so does technology and the potential pathogens. Bio-terrorism isn’t a new concept and it was inevitable that as humans, competing for resources, this type of warfare would be employed again. Unfortunately, as technology improves, new methods to destroy society and humanity arise. Even today, we’re finding new ways to deal with the current pandemic “covid-19”, be it vaccines or hyperbaric chambers.
Thirdly, several nations have found ways to navigate the “living with covid-19” path. The new concern should be, what if the nuclear nations like the bio-terrorist state of the ccp launches against Australia, or Japan, as they have already threatened it. This reminds me of a military simulation I used to play where the Iranian leader, the “kookamani” had nukes on hand. In this case, the ccp has already threatened to use them on neighbours that don’t accept their rule. Nuclear conflict isn’t ruled out by the ccp, and the scariest part is that they are making inroads with Nepal and into Indian territory to achieve a minimal means of reprisal, where the USA and allies can’t take out all of the ccp’s nuclear arsenal in a first strike. The next consideration is, if the ccp is keen to use their nuclear arsenal, would they also give some to Iran and Afghanistan to spread their capability?
Finally, when we consider the next decade, it is clear that the ccp is the current high risk of the 2020’s, if not further. Friedman posed that Turkey would eventually be the regions biggest influence of the next century; however, at this stage, they haven’t awoken. Currently, Turkey is rising in confidence with the rise of Asia, but with the House of Cards that is Evergrande and china’s property market, it is more likely that the rise is not only stalled, but reversed. If I had to put my finger on a new leader, it will be Africa and the America’s if they can control their resources of rare earths that are currently used for batteries. That’s assuming that electric is the “next big thing”, but if we look to 1901, 38% of cars were electric. It may well be that Hydrogen powered vehicles are the next boom, but that is yet to be determined by the market. Whether the technology takes us one way or the other, the china issue must be resolved and as it appears, their economy won’t last the 2020’s as it is, which could lead to their eventual demise.
Either way, the next two decades will certainly be a rollercoaster for the east and west alike. To date, no nation has arisen more powerful than the ccp and this conflict is likely to continue years, until it eventually comes to head. While we remain hopeful of a peaceful transition, the history of recorded humanity is one of regular conflict, violent gesticulations, misunderstandings and ineffective communication. Unfortunately, as the Roman’s put it: “Si vis pacem, para bellum”, “If you want peace, prepare for war.” That may well mean a conflict in the asian region is inevitable. Whoever ends up victorious, one would assume a coalition of the West, based on their broad support, and new regional powers arising between Japan, Phillipines and India, Australia in the Pacific and Latin America and Africa as the minerals sources to the world. It’s highly probable then that a deconstructed china will see Hong Kong form a city state and Taiwan gain independence and the paper tiger fold into a more amenable trading partner to the world with a burgeoning middle class and reformed, less authoritarian regime (eventually).