French Revolution 2020?
Here I go again. What does the French Revolution of the 1789–99 have in common with 2020? The patterns are there if you look carefully enough. Firstly, plagues are not uncommon to society, the French experience of 1720 saw Marseilles impacted severely, the death toll exacerbated by slow and lax governmental action. Secondly, governments or monarchies reacted with economic stimulus packages during times of plague, this is not uncommon to today’s global experience with Covid-19. Thirdly, government corruption and excessive spending found Louis XVI in a financial crisis which lead to an increasing poor class. The trilogy is upon us now, 1) another pandemic, 2) big ineffective government, 3) leading to government debt, excessive fear from racism in the USA, chinese invasion in India and Nepal, and less jobs because of the pandemic. In 2020 we have Covid-19 or whatever name you feel like calling it, governments around the world are spending between 10–15% of GDP in stimulus packages to keep their economy afloat, and global government debt is growing and we are reaching uncontrollable levels of spending on health and social security. The French Revolution was exacerbated by all these issues, pandemic, big government that leads to corruption or inefficiency, government debt, poverty and hunger.
Pandemic/Tragic accident/Gross government failure
The classical definition of a Pandemic is an epidemic that occurs worldwide, and the expanded one, includes an epidemic that has the reasonable ability to expand worldwide. In France 1720 saw the the last Bubonic plague out break in Western Europe, and it took the lives of almost half of the city of Marseille. Of course France in 1715 was almost bankrupt, thanks to Louis XIV’s costly wars, and again in the 1780’s, Louis XVI found himself in a similar economic turmoil. However the French revolution can be seen as a cacophony of several failures, namely government expenditure in the American war of independence and their Queen, Madam Deficit. The further gross government failures of excessive taxation, reform that was insufficient to appease the majority or the third estate, increased discontent. Add to the discontent, the pandemic and the Age of Enlightenment, which made the people aware of the issues and made them think. This was a powder keg.
Likewise today, we have emotions running high both domestically and globally thanks to the pandemic. In the USA, the “Black Lives Matter” movement continues to be incensed by every person of colour being shot or killed by police. In most of the world, people are protesting at being “quarantined” and essentially self isolated in their homes because of this pandemic. Discontent is on the rise, and not through an age of enlightenment, but an age of enragement, where the news is everywhere and generally negative which further leads to our heightened emotional state.
We can also observe gross corruption in Lebanon, whose explosion in Beirut exposed much of this and its people have demanded action. Argentine’s have also demonstrated against the lockdown and corruption. Hunger and desperation across Latin America caused by lockdowns and corrupt governments is clearly evident. The media is certainly mentioning these events, but surely not as vociferous as a Max Robespierre or his colleagues.
Big Government/Corruption/Inefficiency
The Australian experience has been the 2019/20 summer of bushfires, catapulted our Prime Minister Scott Morrison (“ScoMo”) to global laughing stock for holidaying in Hawaii while Australia burned. This lack of leadership hasn’t stopped there, the Victorian Premier has been mismanaging data sharing, and more recently being held to account for poorly managing the quarantine of travellers in his state that has led to the entire nation being affected. Certainly Australia has demonstrated that there is ineffective government, mismanagement at all levels, but ScoMo has changed his image and certainly appears more proactive in this pandemic, to the extent that he is the voice of reason.
Turn to the USA, where the attacks on President Trump haven’t ceased, blaming him for making the effects of the pandemic worse. No doubt exists that world leaders are embattled, whether you’re Lukashenko of Belarus, Trump of USA, Macron of France, or Netanyahu of Israel. Big governments are showing their cracks, with the inefficiency of their large bureaucracy demonstrating the corrupt practices of branch stacking in Australia, and surprisingly even Gerrymandering in Australia. Big government is showing its failures. Local government isn’t untouched either, with their interpretations on how to aid the state, leads to unbelievable and ludicrous regulations, like banning backyard BBQ’s, encroaching our civil liberties in our homes. Have they all gone nuts?
Let’s not even touch the pandemic planning that the average citizen would expect government at least has a plan. Unfortunately, in Australia, the last large scale pandemic plan occurred way back in 2008. Meanwhile, the USA’s plan in 2019 highlighted systemic failures in their preparedness. In short, big government, lots of discussion and spending, but little action.
Excessive debt
I’ve covered off national debt across the globe and how most countries are over the edge already, if you’re not aware, have a read. We’ve been warned that this debt will take decades and possibly our younger generations will be paying it off. The good news is that we don’t owe the money to loan sharks or vulture funds, so it’s not so bad. Some nations from the third world or developing nations have found themselves in debt traps with china, this will certainly lead to greater tensions with that nation. Debt traps are essentially predatory loans made out to an entity who will more likely than not, be unable to repay the loan, allowing the lender to take possession of a significant asset as collateral. In the case of nations, specifically in the Pacific ocean, china has applied this technique in its pursuit of trade and military routes. Australian household debt continues to rise, and this is also evident globally.
Uncertainty
In times of uncertainty, there is an economic flight to safety and this is evident today. For this reason, the price of gold has rise and continues to do so. In Australia, the continued documented uncertainty is impacting markets, affecting business confidence and eventually the bottom line, GDP. Then take the position of Mr Joe Average who may or may not have a permanent role, is either unemployed and receiving government benefits that are scheduled to change (lower) over the coming months, or is a on a temporary job keeper payment, that will also lower over the coming months. This economic uncertainty is far from reassuring to the average punter and even worse for the business owner. Business confidence overall was on the rise in June, which could be correlated to how Australian had been handling the pandemic. In July and August, the pandemic hit a second wave in Australia and at this stage has seen 525 deaths, with 438 of those in Victoria. It is unlikely that the Victorian Premier would hold office if an election was held in the coming months, his opinion dropping from 67% in June to 49% in August.
Conclusion
It is clear that we’re headed for turbulent times because of this health crisis, that exacerbates the bureaucratic bumbling of big governments. We surely deserve better government, but in order to do that, need better, more informed voters and greater measures of accountability by politicians to the voters, beyond just the voting cycle. There may not be an immediate appetite to storm the Bastille of some nations, but there is certainly sufficient discontent and built up emotions to spark riots, as in the USA with their BLM protests. Can we draw parallels to 1789? Potentially. Will there be a mass uprising across the globe? Unlikely. We have recently seen a Louis XVI resign with the entire Lebanese government resigning. To date, there is no nation close to revolution, except Belarus or some Latin American nations. It is evident if they do revolt, it will be due to internal factors, endemic to their issues. But, if enough nations commence to tople, the domino effect could be global. The outcome will be solely dependent on how political leaders in each nation manage the minor uprisings as and when they occur.
